· Who we are
· Products
and services:
· Business
and industry
strategies and
models
· Innovation &
new technology
· Economic measurement
· Economic
and social
development
of regions and
localities
· News
· Sitemap
· Contact us
· Home
DREAM® people
The aim of the DREAM® family of products is to provide for regional and local economies the economic information usually available for analysis only at national level. DREAM®people is a simple demographic model designed to display demographic history and allow population projections under a range of assumptions.
DREAM®people is designed to release those responsible for regional and local planning and policy from the confines of a single centrally-approved population projection. It allows them to protect themselves from sudden and apparently arbitrary changes in externally-generated forecast numbers and to explore the robustness of policy alternatives to different assumptions about the economy, society and the environment.
Making a demographic projection involves making assumptions about how people will behave and how they will make major life-forming decisions. DREAM®people does this in a similar way to official models: in some places it is simpler, and in other cases it is more subtle: most importantly it can be controlled by the user.
| Scope | All people, ages 0-99 plus ‘100 and over’. Projects ahead one-year at a time from the latest available mid-year population estimate and continues into the future without time limit. |
| Births | Birth rates reflect regional differentials and national trends in fertility, applied to the local population of child-bearing age. |
| Deaths | Deaths reflect national trends in mortality rates through age 99, adjusted by the age-specific mortality ratio for the locality. |
| Migration total | Migration is estimated as the sum of five identified flows as indicated below |
| Migration by age | 1. | Bellwether migration of early career 21-33 olds at rates based primarily on the labour market including wage levels |
| 2. | Prime working migration of 34-49 year olds at rates based on labour market and housing | |
| 3. | 50-67 ‘end career’ migration at rates based mainly on housing markets especially equity release | |
| 4. | 0-15 child migration based on prime migration and local family size (which may depend on the housing stock) | |
| 5. | Student age migration at rates based on the age participation index for higher education and to some extent employment. |
| Who we are
| Products and services: |
| Business and industry strategies and models
| Innovation & new technology |
| Economic measurement
| Economic and social development of regions and localities |
| News
| Sitemap
| Contact us
| Home |
cogentSI
COGENT STRATEGIES INTERNATIONAL LTD
KILLYLUNG HOUSE, DUMFRIES DG2 0RL SCOTLAND
Tel +44 (0) 1387 720 462 E-MAIL info@cogentsi.com
